Forecasting the Gubernatorial Election

As election day grows near, I have begun to pay more attention to what the professional political forecasters are saying.   In politics as in economics, predicting the future is a tricky business but it often can be very enlightening, especially when done well.

Nate Silver, whose independent blog became very influential during the 2008 elections and who recently teamed up with the NY Times, is one of the more interesting political forecasters out there. His latest models suggest that:

• The Republicans have a 2 in 3 chance of taking back control of the house of representatives.

• The Republicans have a 1 in 4 chance of taking control of the Senate.

• The Republicans are expected to control 30 of the 50 State Houses (up from 23).

Nate also prepares models that forecast each gubernatorial race -- his current prediction (as of 9/7) for the Patrick-Baker-Cahill race suggests that it is highly likely that the Commonwealth will buck the national trend and remain in Democratic hands. 

Specifically, he assigns a 73.4% probability of a Patrick victory, a 26.6% chance of a Baker victory and a 0% chance of a Cahill victory (sorry Mr. Treasurer). 

Locally, the always interesting David Bernstein over at the Boston Phoenix comes to pretty much the same conclusion albeit with a lot less number crunching and a lot more on the ground insight.

It is still early but, absent some major game changers in the next 6 weeks, it appears we are due for a major shakeup in the Congress and a second term for Governor Patrick and Lieutenant Governor Murray.